The decline in new housing sales (about 53% lower than in 2019 according to Les Échos) reshuffles the cards for anyone looking to invest intelligently in real estate in 2024. Strategies that worked two years ago, particularly purchasing in VEFA with the Pinel scheme, are no longer viable. We are seeing a clear shift towards older properties in need of renovation, European SCPI, and more sophisticated financial arrangements.
Usury rate and structuring of real estate credit: the underestimated lever
Borrowing capacity remains the primary filter for a profitable rental investment. With credit rates hovering around 3.25% at the beginning of 2025 after a long phase of increase, the refinancing window is gradually opening. We recommend structuring the arrangement even before searching for a property.
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A technical point that general public guides often overlook: partial amortization deferral. For a purchase involving heavy renovations, negotiating a deferral of 12 to 24 months allows for only interest payments during the renovation phase. Cash flow remains positive from the first rents, without having absorbed full monthly payments during the void period.
Another structuring avenue: the in fine loan backed by a life insurance policy remains relevant for high-tax profiles. The borrowed capital is only repaid at maturity, maximizing the deduction of interest on rental income. The trade-off is a higher total credit cost, but the net return after tax can exceed that of a traditional amortizable loan when the marginal tax rate is high.
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To cross-reference property types and possible arrangements, exploring real estate on Muchos allows for a quick comparison of market segments.
Old properties to renovate vs new in crisis: profitability and risk arbitration
The new property market is in structural crisis. Sales have declined by about 20% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to 2023. Developers are marginally adjusting their prices, but construction costs remain rigid. The result: the price gap per square meter between new and old properties is widening, making new properties difficult to justify purely on rental yield criteria.
Older properties with renovations offer three simultaneous advantages:
- A negotiable acquisition price, especially for properties classified F or G in the DPE, which owners struggle to rent due to progressive restrictions on energy-inefficient properties.
- A tax lever through property deficits: deductible renovations (insulation, roofing, networks) reduce the overall taxable income up to €10,700 per year, with any surplus being carry-forwardable for ten years.
- A mechanical revaluation of the property after energy renovation, as the DPE has become a selection criterion for both tenants and buyers.
The main risk remains budget overruns on renovations. We observe that investors who succeed in this type of operation consistently have an energy audit conducted before signing the preliminary agreement, not after. This audit precisely quantifies the renovation items and avoids unpleasant surprises regarding technical feasibility.
European SCPIs and diversification beyond residential
SCPIs are undergoing a phase of reconfiguration. Management companies like PERIAL and Advenis REIM are pushing more defensive strategies focused on European diversification and non-residential assets (offices, healthcare, logistics). This positioning responds to a dual observation: the French taxation on rental income is heavy, and the tertiary real estate markets in Germany, the Netherlands, or Spain often offer higher gross yields.
The tax advantage of an SCPI invested outside France lies in the mechanism of tax credits or effective rates. Foreign-source income is not subject to the 17.2% social contributions, which mechanically improves the net yield. For an investor already exposed to French residential through one or two direct lots, adding a European SCPI reduces portfolio correlation.
A common mistake is to compare the displayed distribution rate without factoring in subscription fees (often between 8 and 12% of the invested amount) or the enjoyment period. Over a horizon of less than eight years, these entry fees seriously penalize actual performance.
Rental vacancy and market choice: Paris vs intermediate cities
The rental vacancy rate in Paris remains below 2%, making it a secure yield market, but with entry prices that compress gross profitability. Meanwhile, the luxury segment in Paris has lost its status as the world’s leading market, indicating that international capital is redirecting towards other metropolises.
Intermediate cities (Angers, Reims, Metz, Clermont-Ferrand) offer higher gross yields, but rental vacancy there is more volatile. The discriminating criterion is neither the price per square meter nor the theoretical rent: it is the depth of the rental pool. A university town with a hospital and a TGV station maintains structural rental demand. A municipality dependent on a single industrial employer presents an asymmetric risk.
Investing intelligently in real estate in 2024 requires cross-referencing these local data with the chosen financial structure. A property with a high gross yield in a city with high vacancy can generate negative cash flow if two months of vacancy accumulate each year.
The winning combination for most profiles remains a renovated old property in a city with moderate rental tension, financed with an amortization deferral and complemented by a European SCPI pocket. This is neither the most spectacular nor the most publicized arrangement, but it is the one that withstands the rise in rates, the crisis in new properties, and the ongoing tax burden the best.